Diaspora Data Audit: Old vs. New Figures

Verification of ELECAM's latest overseas registration data (34,411) against the previous snapshot (34,296).

Overall Net Change

Old Data Total (Dataset 1)

34,296

Verified sum from previous polling stations list.

New Official Total (Dataset 2)

34,411

Figure confirmed from Dataset 2 Grand Total.

Net Change (Discrepancy)

+115 (0.34%)

Minimal net increase between the two snapshots.


Methodology: Automated Verification & Source Documents

Our audit uses a data pipeline incorporating Optical Character Recognition (OCR), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Machine Learning (ML) models to extract, clean, and verify data from the official ELECAM images.

Verification Tools & Python Snippet

The core of the verification process is a Python script used for automated consistency checks:


# Illustrative Python snippet for data extraction & verification
from ocr_tool import process_image
# 1. Image preprocessing and OCR for raw data capture
data_set_raw = process_image("diaspora_list_new.jpg") 

# 2. AI/ML-enhanced Data Cleaning & Structuring
df_diaspora = ml_model.structure_data(data_set_raw)

# 3. Mathematical Consistency Check (e.g., Africa Total)
computed_africa = df_diaspora[df_diaspora['Region'] == 'Africa']['Women'].sum() + df_diaspora[df_diaspora['Region'] == 'Africa']['Men'].sum()
print(f"Computed Africa Total: {computed_africa}")
                    
Original Source Documents (External & Internal)

ELECAM Facebook Earlier Diaspora Post (External Verification):

October 5th Post (Data 1)

Raw Source Images (Internal Links):

Click on images below to view the original documents used for OCR:
Dataset 1 (Old Data)

ELECAM Facebook Later Diaspora Post (External Verification):

October 9th Post (Data 2)

Raw Source Images (Internal Links):

Dataset 2 (New Data)

Internal Arithmetic Audit: Discrepancies in Dataset 2

This audit checks the mathematical consistency of the aggregated figures in the new data (Dataset 2), revealing two critical arithmetic errors in the source document itself.

Africa Total Enrolled Error

The "AFRIQUE / AFRICA" row states a total of 19,983 voters, but the sum of the gender breakdown is inconsistent:

Women + Men (5,783 + 13,200) = 18,983

Stated Total = 19,983

Arithmetic Discrepancy: 1,000 Voters

Persons with Disability Grand Total Error

The Grand Total for "Persons with Disability" is mathematically inconsistent with the sum of its regional components:

Sum of Regional Totals (20+4+9+3) = 36

Stated Grand Total = 27

Arithmetic Discrepancy: 9 Persons


Historical Data Consistency Audit (Granular Polling Data vs. Summary)

This documents an earlier audit of the polling station-level data (older source images) against the summary total they were meant to support, revealing a significant lack of historical consistency.

Key Inconsistencies Found in Earlier Audits

  • Summation Error: The sum of individual polling stations from the older granular data totaled approximately 32,236 (for the countries analyzed), which did not match the official summary total of 34,296 reported at that time.
  • Major Country Errors:
    • Guinée Équatoriale: Granular data reported approximately 1,580 voters, but the summary reported 2,846 voters. A major discrepancy of -1,266 voters.
    • Nigeria: The granular breakdown reported 400 more voters than the corresponding total in the summary data.

Country-by-Country Audit & Adjustments

This audit compares the total registered voters per country from Dataset 1 (Old: 34,296 total) against Dataset 2 (New: 34,411 total).

Country Old Reg. (Dataset 1) New Reg. (Dataset 2) Net Change Discrepancy %
COTE D'IVOIRE736969+233+31.66%
REP. CENTRAFRICAINE652853+201+30.83%
CANADA1,1861,505+319+26.89%
CONGO791890+99+12.52%
EGYPTE269205-64-23.79%
GABON6,2676,267+00.00%
NIGERIA2,8272,827+00.00%
GUINEE EQUATORIALE2,8462,846+00.00%
ALLEMAGNE1,9071,907+00.00%
FRANCE4,5094,509+00.00%
ARABIE SAOUDITE779779+00.00%
ITALIE1,0151,015+00.00%
MAROC609609+00.00%
AFRIQUE DU SUD988988+00.00%
SENEGAL1,0401,040+00.00%
GRAND TOTAL 34,296 34,411 +115 +0.34%

Key Electoral Observations (Based on Dataset 2)

Negligible Electoral Impact

0.43%

Diaspora share of the National Electorate (7.9M+)

Significant Male Skew

65.5%

Percentage of Diaspora Voters Who Are Men (22,549)

Largest Single Bloc

France (4,509)

Represents 13.1% of the Entire Global Diaspora Electorate

The analysis confirms that while the net change of +115 voters is minimal, the audit reveals systemic issues in data integrity across all phases of reporting: historical inconsistencies, internal arithmetic errors, and significant country-level adjustments (e.g., +31.66% in Côte d'Ivoire).

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